Ocean Import FCL Rate Outlook for the remainder of 2017 through early 2018.
1) Nov 1st GRI/PSS
- We have seen that October did not have any increase, and ocean import FCL rates were extended to end of October. This is normal in the month of October after the China National Holidays. November will be a soft market and in our opinion zero to low chance of rates increasing on November 1st .
2) November and December outlook
- Traditionally, these 2 months are the quietest months in a year. However BDG believes that there might be an increase in December. This is because the rates especially for USEC are too low. BCOs have signed contracts at levels higher than current spot levels this year. Carriers will not allow the spot rates to remain at this level which is far lower than current BCO contracts. They might take some action to increase the rates.
3) Loading factors and Space situation
- Currently, the space for USWC is still very full all the way to end of October. We forecast that USWC space will continue to be tight all the way to Chinese New Year 2018 while USEC space may be slightly open while picking up towards January.
4) Chinese New Year 2018
- 2018 Chinese New Year will fall on Feb 16th so we forecast that the peak season for CNY 2018 will start from the middle of January.